{"id":19214,"date":"2022-01-12T12:17:15","date_gmt":"2022-01-12T16:17:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.chmafm.com\/welcome\/?p=19214"},"modified":"2022-01-13T15:01:52","modified_gmt":"2022-01-13T19:01:52","slug":"at-the-beginning-of-a-tidal-wave-of-omicron-public-health-asks-people-to-reduce-contacts-without-additional-restrictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.chmafm.com\/welcome\/at-the-beginning-of-a-tidal-wave-of-omicron-public-health-asks-people-to-reduce-contacts-without-additional-restrictions\/","title":{"rendered":"At the beginning of a \u201ctidal wave\u201d of Omicron, Public Health asks people to reduce contacts without additional restrictions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/a>
New Brunswick Public Health epidemiologist Mathieu Chalifoux speaking at a briefing January 11, 2022. Image: Youtube screencap<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The news was dire in a technical briefing yesterday from New Brusnwick\u2019s department of health.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mathieu Chalifoux, lead COVID-19 epidemiologist with Public Health, presented projections for case counts and hospitalizations into the next two months, showing a steep curve peaking at the end of January or beginning of February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
Source: New Brunswick Public Health<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Chalifoux said over 5000 New Brunswickers can be expected to develop the disease daily by the end of the month. \u201dOver a five day period, this would be about 25,000 individuals, assuming 2.3 individuals per household. This could mean over 7% or approximately 55,000 people isolating at any given moment,\u201d the epidemiologist warned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike the last projections presented by the province, these account for the increased transmissibility of the Omicron variant which is now dominant in the province, but there have been some changes since the projections were created. In early January, the province started to limit eligibility for testing. Those limits could mean official PCR numbers come in lower than the stated projections, unless results from rapid tests are included.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The province has started to report the results from rapid tests that are being voluntarily submitted by those who test positive with the take-home test kits. On Tuesday, there were 191 new positive PCR cases announced, along with 842 new positive rapid test results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chalifoux acknowledged that case counts based on PCR testing are underreported, but increasingly the more important metric is the number of people that will need to be admitted to hospital with COVID-19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Though milder than the Delta variant, Omicron is \u201cby no means mild,\u201d says Chalifoux. \u201cFor every 1000 cases under Delta, we would have expected 60 admissions. With Omicron we now expect 10. While better, this is still enough to put our health system at risk due to the sheer volume of cases.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Tuesday, a new record high of 88 people were in hospital with COVID-19. Chalifoux showed a projection that would see that number rise to 200 by January 26, just two weeks away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The number of people in hospital has not yet skyrocketed in this province as it has in places like Ontario and Quebec, but Chalifoux said he is not expecting New Brunswick will dodge the curve seem elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis experience is not unique to New Brunswick,\u201d he said Tuesday. \u201cIn many ways, this is the first truly national experience of COVID-19 we have had since the beginning of the pandemic.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
Source: New Brunswick Public Health<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Horizon interim CEO John Dornan was also on hand at Tuesday\u2019s briefing and echoed the concern that rates of hospitalization seen in other parts of Canada could soon be the reality here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe are at the start of a very high tidal wave,\u201d said Dornan. \u201cIt’s creeping up now, but in the next two, three weeks, it’s going to crash over us like like no one’s business.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTo not be prepared for that would be irresponsible,\u201d said Dornan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You might think the alarming prospect of the impending \u201ctidal wave\u201d would mean New Brunswick would soon be moving into the third phase of its winter plan, which would see the suspension of in-person dining and non-essential retail, and the return of the single household bubble (at least as it is currently formulated.<\/a>) But the province made no such announcement on Tuesday. Instead, there was a strong appeal to New Brunswickers to reduce close contacts of their own accord, without additional restrictions in place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chalifoux presented alternative projections for the Omicron wave, which showed the reduction in hospitalizations that would result with a 10% and 20% reduction in the rate of close contacts among New Brunswickers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
Source: New Brunswick Public Health<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

By \u201cseeing fewer people, distancing appropriately, or wearing well fitted masks inside,\u201d Chalifoux said New Brunswickers could cut the Omicron peak by a third of what would happen with no changes in public behaviour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dornan suggested a practical way to think about the call to reduce contacts. \u201cWhat if for the next 10 people I might be in contact with,\u201d said Dornan, \u201dwhat if I cut that back by three people. And every time considered what [contact with people] I needed to cut back?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New Brunswick\u2019s chief Public Health Officer was also on hand at Tuesday\u2019s briefing, and answered questions from reporters about why the province was not yet implementing the final phase of its winter plan. Dr. Jennifer Russell said public health is \u201cmonitoring the situation very closely\u201d, and trying to balance the risks of what\u2019s happening with the unintended consequences of more restrictive measures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not a decision that would be taken lightly,\u201d said the chief medical officer. Russell said previously announced triggers for the winter plan are meant to trigger a re-assessment of the situation, and not necessarily a move to level three. In fact, she is hoping the province can avoid the move to level three altogether. \u201cThe briefing today is really about how to how to make sure that New Brunswickers understand the situation as it is today,\u201d said Russell, \u201cand what actions they can take personally.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Greens calls for tighter restrictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On Monday, the Green Party caucus called on the provincial government to increase restrictions in parts of the province facing extremely high case counts, such as zones 1 (the southeast) and 2 (the Saint John region). A news release from the Green caucus cited nearly fully ICUs in both the Saint John and Georges Dumont hospitals, and argued that an increase to some level 3 restrictions could reduce community spread, and pave the way for students to go back to school, and ensure healthcare workers are better protected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Memramcook-Tantramar MLA Megan Mitton spoke with CHMA about the call for more measures, specifically mentioning current rules that allow gatherings of up to 150 people in some venues. Mitton says she\u2019d like the province to consider implementing some version of level three, even if its not the full slate of measures currently in the plan, which includes a single household bubble. \u201cThey’ve tweaked all the other levels of the winter plan since it came out,\u201d says Mitton, \u201cwhy not tweak this level as well?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat we’re saying is, we need to get the spread under control, and at least slow it down,\u201d says Mitton. \u201cIt seems like we’ve forgotten this \u2018flatten the curve\u2019 language and idea, but we need to slow down the spread of Omicron.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mitton also says communications need to be ramped up. \u201cWe haven’t had the type of communication that I think we need from our government,\u201d says the MLA. \u201cWe haven’t had regular press conferences. And I would say they’ve really fumbled some of the rollout of things recently, and some of the the communications that are really necessary.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Open communications is \u201creally essential\u201d says Mitton, \u201cas we’re really facing one of the worst times in the pandemic.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mitton also says she\u2019d like to see better supports in place to accompany increased restrictions. She names support for small businesses, paid sick leave provisions, and support for child care. \u201cThere are people who are facing really difficult situations right now around childcare, around work, or being put in a situation where they need to self isolate,\u201d says Mitton. \u201cWe basically need to keep supporting people. The pandemic\u2019s not over. We need to keep supporting people to get through it.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The news was dire in a technical briefing yesterday from New Brusnwick\u2019s department of health. Mathieu Chalifoux, lead COVID-19 epidemiologist with Public Health, presented projections for case counts and hospitalizations 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