{"id":56410,"date":"2025-04-03T15:21:24","date_gmt":"2025-04-03T18:21:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.chmafm.com\/welcome\/?p=56410"},"modified":"2025-04-03T18:12:31","modified_gmt":"2025-04-03T21:12:31","slug":"strategic-voting-can-hurt-third-parties-but-is-not-a-factor-in-beausejour-in-2025-says-prof","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.chmafm.com\/welcome\/strategic-voting-can-hurt-third-parties-but-is-not-a-factor-in-beausejour-in-2025-says-prof\/","title":{"rendered":"Strategic voting can hurt third parties, but is not a factor in Beaus\u00e9jour in 2025, says prof"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are 16 Canadian political parties registered with Elections Canada, with at least six of them expected to run candidates in the Beaus\u00e9jour riding. But voters could be forgiven for thinking there are only two parties that really matter in this election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to pre-election polling, third parties like the NDP, Bloc Quebecois and Greens are bleeding potential voters, and the two largest parties in the country\u2013the Liberals and the Conservatives\u2013are dominating, with projections saying they could together take 318 of the 343 seats in the House of Commons. Part of the reason for that domination is the phenomenon of strategic voting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1280\" height=\"853\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" src=\"https:\/\/www.chmafm.com\/welcome\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Mario2-1280x853.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25953\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.chmafm.com\/welcome\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Mario2-1280x853.jpg 1280w, https:\/\/www.chmafm.com\/welcome\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Mario2-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.chmafm.com\/welcome\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Mario2-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.chmafm.com\/welcome\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Mario2-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.chmafm.com\/welcome\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Mario2-1320x880.jpg 1320w\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Dr. Mario Levesque, professor of Politics and International Relations at Mount Allison University. Image: policychange.ca<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Professor Mario Levesque teaches Mount Allison students about strategic voting in his Political Parties &amp; Elections in Canada course. CHMA called up Levesque to find out more about strategic voting, why people do it, and how it\u2019s connected to the way we organize elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-audio\"><audio controls src=\"https:\/\/www.chmafm.com\/welcome\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Apr-1-Levesque-Strategic-Voting.mp3\"><\/audio><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cStrategic voting is when we do not vote according to our preferred political party,\u201d says Levesque, but instead cast a vote aimed \u201cto block another large party from trying to win office.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Levesque gives the example of a voter aligned with the NDP, who may choose to vote Liberal instead, in order to help make sure a Conservative candidate doesn\u2019t take the seat in question. But strategic voting can also happen at the other end of the political spectrum, with smaller right wing parties losing out to voters aiming to bolster Conservative candidates, and block Liberals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"817\" height=\"472\" sizes=\"(max-width: 817px) 100vw, 817px\" src=\"https:\/\/www.chmafm.com\/welcome\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-03-at-3.00.24\u202fPM.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-56412\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.chmafm.com\/welcome\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-03-at-3.00.24\u202fPM.png 817w, https:\/\/www.chmafm.com\/welcome\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-03-at-3.00.24\u202fPM-600x347.png 600w, https:\/\/www.chmafm.com\/welcome\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-03-at-3.00.24\u202fPM-768x444.png 768w\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A screenshot of <a href=\"https:\/\/newsinteractives.cbc.ca\/elections\/poll-tracker\/canada\/\">CBC&#8217;s Poll Tracker<\/a> on April 3, 2025.  Projections are based on a number of different opinion polls from across the country, compiled and analyzed by reporter Eric Grenier.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Beaus\u00e9jour, however, Levesque says he doesn\u2019t think strategic voting will play a major role. \u201cI don&#8217;t think there&#8217;s going to be that much strategic voting in this riding in this election,\u201d says Levesque, \u201csimply for the reason that Dominic LeBlanc is here.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Liberal MP and minister Dominic LeBlanc has held the Beaus\u00e9jour riding for 25 years now, and Levesque says it\u2019s likely \u201chis riding for as long as he wants it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A better example of strategic voting in Atlantic Canada is in ridings around Halifax, says Levesque. \u201cThey do tend to elect NDP MPs, but you&#8217;re seeing right now that they may not even elect one NDP MP from Halifax, which is shock actually,\u201d says Levesque. \u201cWhat&#8217;s happening there is people are looking at things and saying, we don&#8217;t want Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives to get in,\u201d says Levesque. \u201cThey&#8217;re saying we&#8217;re not going to vote for the NDP right now, but we&#8217;re going to go with the Liberals to make sure we block out the Conservative candidates.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">&#8216;First past the post&#8217; encourages strategic voting<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Levesque says Canada\u2019s electoral system lends itself to strategic voting at the expense of smaller political parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Canada\u2019s \u2018first past the post\u2019 or single member plurality system means that candidates don&#8217;t need a majority of the vote in their ridings to win. \u201cYou don&#8217;t need 50% plus one extra vote,\u201d says Levesque, \u201cyou just need one more vote than the next person.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cSo I may win the riding with 36% of the vote, but then that means that 64%\u2014so almost two thirds\u2014of the people did not vote for me,\u201d explains Levesque. In riding where there\u2019s two candidates who are close in the race, voters who would normally be inclined to vote for third parties may decide instead to vote strategically for their preferred of the two leading parties in their riding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The single member plurality system \u201cincreases people&#8217;s perception that we need to vote strategically, to block this other person from getting in,\u201d says Levesque. \u201cIt really punishes our small parties.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A proportional system, on the other hand, would give more representation to smaller parties, by allocating seats according to the percentage of party votes across the country. If the NDP were to win 17.8% of the votes (as they did in the 2021 federal election) then they would get 17.8% of seats, instead of the 7% of seats they actually won in 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A pure proportional representation system \u201cwould be fairest to all the parties,\u201d says Levesque, \u201cbecause there&#8217;s no wasted vote or anything. And you would also get people voting their conscience, for the party of their own preference, the most.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Levesque cites one example of a \u201cperverse outcome\u201d related to the first past the post system: the 1987 sweep of all seats in New Brunswick by the McKenna Liberals. While the Liberals got a a whopping 60% of the vote, they ended up with 100% of the seats in the legislature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"631\" height=\"231\" sizes=\"(max-width: 631px) 100vw, 631px\" src=\"https:\/\/www.chmafm.com\/welcome\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-03-at-3.14.21\u202fPM.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-56413\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.chmafm.com\/welcome\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-03-at-3.14.21\u202fPM.png 631w, https:\/\/www.chmafm.com\/welcome\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-03-at-3.14.21\u202fPM-600x220.png 600w\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Historical results from New Brunswick&#8217;s 1987 election, as documented on Wikipedia.  <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cSo that means 40% of the population in New Brunswick did not vote for him, but got no representation,\u201d says Levesque. Under a proportional system, the Liberals would have still held a majority of seats, but the Progressive Conservatives and NDP would have also held seats, which \u201dwould have been more reflective of the voters&#8217; wishes overall,\u201d says Levesque.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Levesque points out there are downsides to proportional representation as well. Because majorities become rare under proportional representation, there can be delays in forming governments as multiple parties negotiate agreements or coalitions. And under pure proportional representation, constituents would lose local representation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A third option combines systems to include proportionality and local representation, says Levesque. Mixed member proportional representation involves electing some MPs or MLAs in &#8216;first past the post&#8217; ridings, and some via proportional representation party lists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe advantage with the mixed member proportional representation system is that we still retain a local MLA or local MP that we&#8217;d like to connect with to address our issues,\u201d says Levesque.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There are 16 Canadian political parties registered with Elections Canada, with at least six of them expected to run candidates in the Beaus\u00e9jour riding. But voters could be forgiven for [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":27154,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_tec_requires_first_save":true,"_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"","_EventStartDate":"","_EventEndDate":"","_EventStartDateUTC":"","_EventEndDateUTC":"","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"_tribe_blocks_recurrence_rules":"","_tribe_blocks_recurrence_description":"","_tribe_blocks_recurrence_exclusions":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[472,482,558],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-56410","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-front-page","category-weekly"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Strategic voting can hurt third parties, but is not a factor in Beaus\u00e9jour in 2025, says prof &#187; 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